Escape From The Bay

The forecasting team at Sentinel monitors the probability of a catastrophe in the Bay area. If the expected cost of staying ever exceeds the cost of leaving, and in particular if the probability of death exceeds 0.5%/year, we email you to leave.

Currently $30.00/month/1 subscribers. The price drops as more people sign up.

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Advanced: derive your own leave threshold

Fixed cost of leaving
Days of life you would give up rather than pack up and go. Include both the actual time and a converstion of monetary costs to days of life. Cost of living outside the Bay
Days of life per year you would rather lose than be away from the Bay area. At which N are you indifferent between living 365 days a year outside the Bay area, or 365-N inside it? Potentially this could be quite large if your impact/salary/value is much higher inside the Bay. Remaining life expectancy (years)

Alert me when the chance of death per year exceeds (%)

Implied by your costs: (5 + 90 days) / (50 years × 365) = 0.52%. Edit it if you disagree.

Extrapolate costs to catastrophes that result in lost productivity rather than death, using our best judgment. Extrapolate above numbers to Costs(Duration) > Probability of death × Life expectancy for periods of risk that would take less than a year, according to our best judgment.